Indian imports of Russian oil plunged by a record in August month-on-month (M-o-M) as discounts on the fuel shrank in tandem with rising Brent oil prices. Higher crude prices will drive inflation or hurt earnings at oil companies and India's fiscal position if such spikes are not passed on to consumers. Indian purchases of Russian crude declined by around 24 per cent in August from July to the lowest level since January, with refiners expecting volumes to drop further amid rising rates of Russian benchmark Urals grade, substantial stocks at refiners, and planned maintenance at Indian refineries, according to ship tracking data and industry officials.
The country's oil marketing companies are preparing for another round of increase in the price of aviation turbine fuel on July 1 as the average price of the fuel in international markets has shot up to around $160 per barrel in June from $150 per barrel in May.
'As the global economy undergoes significant transformations in 2025, India's ability to navigate the complexities of trade wars, financial realignments, and emerging blocs will be pivotal,' explain Harsh V Pant and Soumya Bhowmik.
Senior officials of India and the US will begin three-day talks on the proposed bilateral trade agreement in New Delhi on Wednesday amid threats of reciprocal tariffs from the Trump-administration, an official said. To formally start the negotiations on the pact, Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, along with a team of officials, is in New Delhi.
The October-December quarter (Q3FY25) results of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) major Hindustan Unilever (HUL) indicated weak demand, with urban growth muted and rural showing recovery. Consolidated revenue grew by 1.6 per cent (volume was flat) to Rs 15,818 crore, due to price hikes. Prices of key raw materials such as palm oil and tea remained elevated, leading to compression of gross margin.
Petrol and diesel prices were cut by Rs 2 per litre each as state-owned oil companies ended a nearly two-year-long hiatus in rate revision, just hours before the general election schedule was announced.
An increase in project cost will lead to corresponding increase in borrowing needs of these companies, particularly the oil marketing firms that have already borrowed nearly 50 per cent more this year compared to last year because of rising crude oil prices. Companies now fear this would make borrowing tougher in terms of higher interest rate and per client exposure norms of commercial banks.
Under-recovery or the gap between retail selling price and the cost of import, this month dipped to an all-time low of 8 paise a litre, helped by the monthly increases and softening in international oil rates.
Trump spoke approvingly of his recent telephone conversation with Xi Jinping. This could indicate the possibility of America and China reaching some level of tactical accommodation, which would not be good news for India, points out Ambassador Shyam Saran, a former foreign secretary.
India's unabated tryst with Russian crude oil is slowly coming to an end. The time has come for Indian refiners to navigate, creatively, the choppy waters of the post-honeymoon period, and for Indian policymakers to take cognisance of the broader impact on India from the spillover of the Russian crisis - after Washington's warning to transgressors last week. Shipments from Russia to India have averaged over 1.8 million barrels a day since February, according to data from Paris-based market analytics firm Kpler. But much of the crude shipped to India was non-sanctioned because it traded below a price cap set by the US led G-7 nations in December.
The performance of banking and information technology (IT) stocks has had a significant impact on the composition of diversified mutual fund (MF) portfolios. Over the past two months, these sectors have become increasingly dominant, now constituting nearly 30 per cent of the total allocation in many diversified MF portfolios.
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 7.59 lakh crore on Monday as the equity market took a heavy drubbing amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 825.74 points or 1.26 per cent to settle at 64,571.88 points. During the day, the index plummeted 894.94 points or 1.36 per cent to 64,502.68 points.
'Our business continues to roll out its strategy, the role of this GDTC continues to grow.'
'The impact of COVID-19 on the economy has been so overwhelming that even a significant drop in global oil prices, which in normal times would have brought cheer, has posed new challenges for the government,' observes A K Bhattacharya.
Billionaire Gautam Adani's group on Monday announced its exit from FMCG joint venture Adani Wilmar by selling its entire stake to the Singaporean partner and in the open market for an estimated over $2 billion in a first major deal since the US bribery indictment. In a statement, Adani Enterprises Ltd -- which held 43.94 per cent stake in Fortune brand cooking oil, wheat flour and other food product maker Adani Wilmar Ltd -- said it will sell 31.06 per cent stake to Wilmar International. About 13 per cent will be sold in the open market to meet minimum public shareholding requirements.
The BSE benchmark Sensex surged about 241 points to end at 35,165.48 and the NSE Nifty gained 84 points to close at 10,688.65.
'IT companies do not have a large presence there either in terms of market and team. So, the impact of the war will be minimal. But West Asia is an emerging economy.'
On Tuesday, Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan met Russian oil giant Rosneft's chief executive officer Igor Sechin and discussed raising crude imports from that country, in addition to talks about going for more acquisitions.
Among the Sensex firms, Power Grid, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tech Mahindra, Bajaj Finserv, ITC, Bharti Airtel, Nestle, NTPC, Bajaj Finance, Reliance Industries, Infosys and HDFC Bank were the major gainers.
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the nation's largest oil firm, has walked away with half of the natural gas that Reliance Industries Ltd and its partner bp of the UK offered in the latest auction of the fuel used to generate power, produce fertilizer, turned into CNG and used for cooking purposes. IOC got 2.5 million standard cubic meters per day out of the 5 mmscmd of gas auctioned last month, sources with knowledge of the matter said. The oil refining and marketing company, which was the top bidder even in the previous auction of gas from the eastern offshore KG-D6 block of Reliance-bp, bid the volumes on behalf of seven fertilizer plants.
In December 2019, the India arm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu surprised many with its ultra-competitive bid to become the transaction advisor for the country's largest strategic divestment in Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL). The multinational major quoted just Rs 1; the second-highest bidder, SBI Caps, reportedly quoted Rs 15-17 crore. For Deloitte, the motivation was to bag a prestigious deal adding a national energy company to its portfolio. No doubt, it expected BPCL to go to a marquee buyer in quick time.
Domestic quarterly earnings, global trends and foreign fund trading activity would dictate the movement in equity markets, which may face volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry this week, analysts said. Equity markets took a breather last week. The BSE Sensex declined 298.22 points or 0.48 per cent and the Nifty dipped 111.4 points or 0.60 per cent.
Petrol price on Wednesday neared all-time high after state-owned fuel retailers hiked rates after a nearly month-long hiatus. Petrol price was raised by 26 paise per litre and diesel by 25 paise a litre, according to a price notification from oil marketing companies. After this increase, petrol in Delhi climbed to Rs 83.97 per litre from Rs 83.71 previously. Diesel rates rose to Rs 74.12 per litre from Rs 73.87. In Mumbai, diesel touched an all-time high of Rs 80.78.
India and the United States will finalize the contours, schedule of negotiations, and terms of reference for a proposed bilateral trade agreement (BTA) during a three-day meeting beginning Tuesday. The agreement is expected to be finalized in two tranches, with the first phase focusing on goods trade. The US team, led by Assistant US Trade Representative for South and Central Asia Brendan Lynch, will be in India from March 25-29 to discuss the agreement. Both countries are aiming to conclude the first phase of the agreement by fall 2025.
Domestic airlines may soon be able to hedge their risk of jet fuel prices. The government is considering a proposal to allow Indian carriers to hedge the price risk of aviation turbine fuel purchased from oil marketing companies in the country.
After a spike in crude oil and gas prices in October following the Hamas terror attack, prices eased down 9 per cent month-on-month in November. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and Opec+ agreed to a further voluntary production cut in January-March 2024 to try and support global crude prices. The best guess here is that crude prices (currently at $75/barrel, or bbl) will not likely cross significantly above $80, and gas prices are also likely to remain subdued unless there's a further escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Investors' wealth fell by Rs 2.89 lakh crore in two days of market fall, with the BSE Sensex tumbling 796 points on Wednesday, amid weak global market trends ahead of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Fresh foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of a host of interest rate decisions from global central banks also added to the overall bearish trend. Besides, the US Fed meeting, the BoE (Bank of England) and the BoJ (Bank of Japan) are also scheduled to meet this week.
Oil firms' borrowings could fall by up to Rs 15,000 cr, govt's subsidy bill by 12% .
From the Sensex firms, Tech Mahindra jumped 5.58 per cent, followed by Nestle, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Consultancy Services, Asian Paints, Wipro and Bajaj Finserv. Mahindra & Mahindra, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance were among the major laggards.
Asian shares ended higher after a string of positive US economic data.
The fuel delivery scheme mainly targets consumers that buy in bulk.
'The biggest near-term risk to Indian equities is the outflow of investments to China as tactical trades by foreign investors.'
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends, quarterly earnings and foreign fund trading activity would dictate terms in the equity markets this week, analysts said. Besides, movement of rupee against the US dollar and global oil benchmark Brent crude price would also guide the trading pattern in the equity markets. "From a macroeconomic perspective, market participants will be closely observing key events like the upcoming release of the US manufacturing PMI data, US services PMI data and US non-farm payrolls scheduled between August 1 and August 4.
Russia has welcomed India's decision to not support the price cap on Russian oil announced by G7 and its allies and offered it cooperation on leasing and building large-capacity ships to overcome the ban on insurance services and tanker chartering in the European Union and Britain to continue buying discounted oil. The offer came as Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak held a meeting with the Indian Ambassador to Moscow, Pavan Kapoor, on Friday. "The Deputy Prime Minister welcomed India's decision not to support the price cap on Russian oil, which was imposed on December 5 by the G7 countries and their allies," the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement.
Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, Mahindra & Mahindra, JSW Steel, NTPC, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv and Larsen & Toubro were also among the laggards. However, Power Grid, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, Tata Consultancy Services and ICICI Bank were among the gainers.
Privatisation of BPCL, which was dubbed India's biggest ever, has been stalled with just one bidder left in the fray after two others walked out over issues such as lack of clarity in fuel pricing, a top source said. The government had planned to sell its entire 52.98 per cent stake in Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) and invited Expression of Interest from bidders in March 2020. At least three bids came in by November 2020 but only one remains now after the others withdrew from the race.
French energy giant TotalEnergies SE on Monday said it will make no new financial contribution as part of its investments in Adani group companies till the Indian firm's founder is cleared of bribery charges. The energy giant said it was not aware of the investigation into the alleged corruption. TotalEnergies is one of the biggest foreign investors in billionaire Gautam Adani's business empire and had previously taken stakes in the group's renewable energy venture Adani Green Energy Ltd (AEGL) and city gas unit Adani Total Gas Ltd (ATGL).
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
